Breaking the Bear: Is Bitcoin Back?

Any time Bitcoin’s dollar price rallies, interest inevitably follows.

The Fear and Greed Index skyrockets, Bitcoin content suddenly gets popular again, and the ‘Bitcoin is going to zero’ crowd quietly slinks back into the woodwork until the next dollar price crash.

Bitcoiners who held firm right through the lowest points of the bear market and the extreme FUD are emerging with cautious optimism.

Since mid-August, Bitcoin’s price action has defied calls for a $40K bottom and rallied hard to reach more than $87K earlier this week.

Shorters were, well, caught short. People who bet Bitcoin would fall further got a nasty surprise when $360 million in short positions were liquidated.

The question everyone is asking now is: Is the bear market finally over? Is the Bitcoin winter thawing, and is the bull getting ready to run?

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The pundits weigh in on Bitcoin’s price

Many expert predictions, calling for another leg down in Q4, have once again shown why trying to predict Bitcoin’s price is a fool’s game.

As Bitcoin has increased in market cap and attracted institutional interest, its hallmark volatility has been dampened significantly.

In other words, Bitcoin’s price action is about as exciting as watching paint dry for most of the year. All the wild price swings are now compressed into only 10-20 days.

When they do occur, there is always a lot of hand-wringing. A sudden dip becomes evidence that Bitcoin is ‘going to zero’ and is ‘a tulip bulb’. A big jump in price means ‘we are headed for $1 million’.

So why does Bitcoin suddenly become more exciting and relevant when the price reaches $87K in September, when $87K in January seemed like the end of the world as we know it?

At the same dollar price, the market can swing from very negative sentiment about Bitcoin’s value to very positive sentiment.

This helps to demonstrate two things: first, that an increase in dollar price has a big impact on emotions, and thus the behaviour of most Bitcoiners, and second, that the dollar price is a terrible way to gauge the true value of Bitcoin.

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The traps of a rising Bitcoin price

What happens when Bitcoin’s price starts rising and sentiment heads into the greedy zone?

We see a proliferation of bull cases for Bitcoin. Social media is saturated with narratives around Bitcoin’s price going parabolic, FOMO kicks in, and retail interest in Bitcoin spikes.

Confidence in a rising Bitcoin price, along with naked greed, convinces people it's a good idea to hand their Bitcoin over to a custodian.

We're starting to see the same traps that caught people out during previous Bitcoin bull runs sprouting up again like unwanted mushrooms.

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1. Timing the top or selling for a ‘profit’

When Bitcoin’s price is rising, it is tempting for those who bought lower to ‘sell high’ and take profit, then wait for the price to drop to buy in again.

This rarely goes well. Even expert chart analysts get this wrong (see Benjamin Cowen), and it can be stressful trying to figure out the ‘best’ time to sell and then buy back in.

Many people who have attempted to time the market have ended up with far less Bitcoin than they started with. In 2025, a survey of retail crypto investors found that almost 80% of them had lost money trying to trade Bitcoin.

On top of that, trading your Bitcoin usually means transferring it to an exchange. And we all know how that can go.

FTX in 2022 demonstrated that no exchange was ‘too big to fail’.

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2. Using leverage to trade Bitcoin

People who use crypto exchanges for trading are also far more likely to use leverage.

Why settle for a boring 25% return when you could 50x that sh*t, bro?

Many crypto casinos offer outrageous amounts of leverage on an already volatile asset, and it is not out of the goodness of their hearts.

Much like traditional casinos, the house always comes out on top.

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3. Borrowing against your Bitcoin

And speaking of leverage, another trap that starts to look shiny and attractive during a Bitcoin price run-up is borrowing against your Bitcoin.

If the price keeps going up, then why not? You can’t lose, right?

You can borrow against your Bitcoin and never sell it. Just like the rich do! Or better yet, borrow against your Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin (or worse, MSTR).

At least, that’s what the influencers will try to tell you.

But borrowing against your Bitcoin reintroduces all the problems of having a custodian hold your Bitcoin.

For example, you have to go through the Know Your Customer (KYC) process, so your data and Bitcoin holdings aren't private. You also need to trust that the lender will not fail and take your Bitcoin with them.

You may not be able to roll your loan over indefinitely, meaning you will need to repay it in full at the end of the term.

And of course, you risk having your Bitcoin margin called or liquidated if the price dips sharply.

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4. Buying ‘Bitcoin’ in Wall Street wrappers

During a price rally, certain Wall Street Bitcoin-like products can start to look like ‘Bitcoin, but better’.

Bitcoin went up 37% in 5 weeks? Well, MSTR just jumped 20% in a SINGLE week.

MSTR is often described as a ‘leveraged play on Bitcoin’. In other words, it is designed to Get More fiat.

But these products are not Bitcoin. They aren’t even ‘Bitcoin-backed’. You can't exchange them for Bitcoin. They have none of the properties that make Bitcoin, Bitcoin.

They are shares in a software company turned Bitcoin treasury. They must be held in a brokerage account with multiple layers of custodians, and they are nothing more than a paper IOU product.

Combining trusted third parties with leverage and paper Bitcoin-like products is never going to end well.

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5. Scammers, Hackers and Thieves

As Bitcoin's price goes up, so do the potential rewards for people looking to steal your Bitcoin.

As AI hacks, deepfakes, and scams become more prevalent, the need to stay vigilant in protecting your stack also increases.

This means protecting your data, not sharing personal information with anyone, and, above all, keeping your Bitcoin locked down in a safe, secure self-custody setup.

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So what can you do to avoid the traps of the next bull run?

First, don’t be tempted to check the Bitcoin dollar price constantly.

Get used to the idea that Bitcoin’s value isn't measured by how many government coupons it can be exchanged for, or by the current media narrative.

Second, resist all temptation to hand your Bitcoin over to a custodian of any kind:

An exchange, a lender, or a Wall Street corporation. Any time they hold your Bitcoin, you are no longer in control.

Bitcoin is not an investment or a get-rich-quick scheme. It is a decentralized, censorship-resistant bearer asset with a limited supply.

Bitcoin is money, not something to trade for more fiat.

Third, avoid getting swept up in greed and FOMO when the price approaches new all-time highs.

Take a measured approach and buy set amounts at regular intervals, regardless of the price.

Alternatively, you can even earn Bitcoin directly, either through work that pays in Bitcoin or by running a business that accepts Bitcoin.

Either way, you remove the pressure to ‘time the market’ for the best price. You can sit back and accumulate Bitcoin without the stress.

Fourth, assume that everyone who knows that you hold Bitcoin wants to steal it.

Don’t be paranoid, but remember that any time your data is shared, whether intentionally or not, it can be leaked, and the next thing you know, every scammer under the sun is contacting you.

If anyone ever asks for your seed phrase, do not give it out. It is a scam. Nobody ever needs to know your seed phrase.

Also, keep your operating systems, software, and firmware up to date as patches and fixes are released.

And finally, the number one most important thing that you can do to protect your wealth is to ensure that your Bitcoin is held in a secure self-custody setup - one that has plenty of redundancy, so there is no single point of failure.

If you want to protect your wealth - no matter what the Bitcoin price is doing - this is where we can help.

Bitcoin self-custody is our specialty. With our one-on-one service, we can take you by the hand and walk you through every step you need to become financially sovereign.

You never need to tell us who you are, and you are in control of your Bitcoin every step of the way.

If you want to learn more, you can contact our team for a friendly, no-obligation introductory call.

Until next week, stay safe and stay sovereign!